新年 – 老问题
Giancarlo Cervino
国际财务研究中心
- Lugano
The old year was not of the brightest despite the announcements of recovery, even if of a little one, coming from various corner of the Old Continent.
The truth is that in the face of:
A strong recovery of the United States "war economy", that actually
is no more "cold", but very "hot" and on many fronts,
guided by a re-elected president that has made his main flag of the pre-emptive
war;
A never blocked growth of the Chinese economy, and of all the South-East
Asia Countries, and recently of Japan too,
Europe is in the depths of economic stagnation, to which a too strong
Euro has contributed, and the usual troubles too, such as the aging of
population, and a thoughtless increase of production and labour costs
(pointed out or not by statistics).
The one positive note is the economic growth of the new ten members of the European Union, that enjoying a fairly younger population, currencies which are not strictly linked to Euro and the possibility of a certain flexibility of work, they will achieve for a decade or more a good growth of which the whole continent will benefit.
And what about the old historical members (Germany, France and Italy in the lead)? They have to stare powerless at an evident recession, even if not deep.
And from the tax point of view these are the results:
In these countries by this time, the imperative (强制的) is the hunting （搜查）to
evasion （逃避）on capital gain income,
as enterprise profits are always lower. And this is a hunting through
tax shelters and amnisty laws that however, except in the Italian case
that has brought almost the hoped results, even if this was a drop in
the ocean of capitals well hidden abroad, has been a complete failure
of which the German and Belgian cases are emblematic.
The rich and old population is very cautious and knows well that in case of repatriation of these capitals, there is not a young entrepreneurial generation that is ready to make them yield in fruitful investments on the continent but in the Far East and in China. At these conditions it is not necessary to bring them back.
Some patriotic ideals, that are still firm and strong in America, where families regularly send its boys to die on the other part of the world to support the economic recovery of the US and the internal safety, seems to be faded recollection, maybe from the too many wars that have afflicted the Old Continent and from the too great blood-sacrifice.
And what remains to be taxed? The three P:
房地产
储备
贫穷的
Real Estate properties, exactly because they are immovable and easily checkable with a simple satellite with a geostationary orbit.
Provisions, that's to say consumption with the increase of indirect taxes or of direct taxes on commercial activities (people has to eat even if not so much as once upon a time).
Poors that, exactly because they are poor, they haven't enough money and interests to emigrate somewhere else. They march side by side to great masses of poor immigrates that are trying to find the Eldorado, already come to an end, but anyway better than nothing.
An then here is the Italian Financial Act (that has been copied in other countries too. It is encouraging that our Governors have learned so well to anticipate European trends) that reviews cadastral surveys and declare an infighting war to evasion in the world of house renting, as though it would not be clear that sometimes, between a rented flat with a completely declared rent, and a vacant one, the second solution is better.
Taxes and measures, such as the arrangement with the Revenue office, that directly or indirectly try to reduce evasion and the erosion of the income from commercial activities and the poor, that with some shifting of tax rates and some pre-electoral alchemies, are no more that of the ultra low income band, that are probably stationary, but these with income between 50.000 and 100.000 € per year in a single-income family with one or two children, have lost most of their buying power.
Everything is well hidden in a one article law with 572 paragraphs and as many regulations, memoranda that make loose sight of the whole picture and of the true motivation of the manoeuvre.
But don't worry: not to loose one's bearings, one can go in Germany and see the Financial Act in which with less paragraphs and clearer words, the objectives are the same. And the game is up.
Goodness knows why our European cousins and not, refuse to copy our sophisticated and twisted legislative techniques that increase wages of professionals who are called to interpret it, and doesn't make other voters loose their temper because everything is not quite clear to them so they acclaim their governors.
The person who let him off steam, has not got unfortunately the magic wand or the recipe for the solution of this historical problem, that would be anyway composed by a mixture of reforms that go from the field of ethics to that of family to that more strictly technical of work and taxes, but is sure that in the European Union, that is now the only possible political way since a dissolution would set a chaos off that could bring to a war, it is necessary the constitution of a strong central power, composed by a politician and a technician to which the task will be given of the development of the economy of the Continent, as it is first of all committed in the USA to the President and to the Governor of FED, assisted by an efficient political staff.
The nationality or the position assumed wouldn't be important, but only the purpose free from technical binding because instruments should be built ad hoc for the situation.
Without this I think that the decline will be unstoppable even if this will not bring, as some catastrophist thinks, to the end of European civilization, but only to its marginalization and integration in a global context where others will be the main actors.
尽管旧的一年被宣布有复苏的迹象，但哪怕算上陈旧大陆的各个角落发生的变化，那仍然算不上辉煌。
事实面对的是：
l 美国新的当选的连任总统 美国“战时经济”的全面复苏
l 中国以及东南亚国家从未被阻挡过的经济发展，以及最近以来日本经济的复苏。
欧元汇率过高，以及一些常见的问题例如人口老龄化、无畏的提高的生产率和人工成本使得欧洲正陷入经济发展停滞不前的深渊。
值得欣慰的是新加入欧盟的十个成员国的经济增长，他们相对年轻化的人口、未和欧元严格联系的货币、相对灵活的工作，都保证了这些国家的经济还会有持续十年以上的增长。而整个欧洲大陆也会因此受益。
那么那些元老级的成员国（德国、法国、意大利）呢？他们只有无助地凝视明显的萧条，就算那不是特别严重。
从税收的角度看问题是：
这时这些国家对资本收益所得的逃税的搜查就势在必行，就像企业利润从来就很低一样。
这些年长的富人们都非常地谨慎同时非常清楚即使这些资产被楚遣送回国也没有一批年轻的企业家准备好使用这些资产在欧洲大陆做高回报的投资。但在远东和中国情况就不一样了。因为这些原因把它们送回国来显得没有必要。
那么剩下的税收从哪里来呢？那就是三个P：
